2008年1月欧亚阻塞形势的ECMWF集合预报效果评估检验          下载免费PDF全文

王毅  金荣花  代刊  牛若芸  曹勇 《大气科学学报》2014,37(3):257-267

基于欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,ECMWF)集合预报系统资料,评估和讨论了2008年1月我国南方发生严重冰冻雨雪灾害期间欧亚中高纬阻塞形势的预报效果。结果表明,2008年1月阻塞形势发生频率极端偏高,ECMWF集合预报的阻塞发生频率随着预报时效的延长逐渐降低。环流预报效果检验表明,预报时效大于6 d时,集合平均的预报效果好于确定性预报,因此集合预报的优势主要体现在中期预报时段。对阻塞形势的可预报性的分析表明,阻塞崩溃期间的可预报性低于阻塞建立期间。另外,通过集合预报可以获得阻塞发生的概率,从而提前为预报员提供可能发生阻塞的信号。  相似文献   

Primers to block the amplification of symbiotic apostome ciliate 18S rRNA gene in a PCR-based copepod diet study   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

衣晓燕  张寰  刘光兴 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2014,32(3):515-521

Pelagic copepods play an important role in the marine food web. However, a full understanding of the ecological status of this zooplankton group depends on the careful study of their natural diets. In previous PCR-based copepod diet studies, we found many apostome ciliates that live symbiotically under the exoskeleton of the copepods, and their sequences were often over-represented in the 18S rRNA gene （18S rDNA） libraries. As a first step to address this issue, we designed three apostome ciliate 18S rDNA blocking primers, and tested their blocking efficiency against apostome ciliate 18S rDNA under various PCR conditions. Using a semi-quantitative PCR method, we optimized the conditions to efficiently amplify the 18S rDNA of the prey while simultaneously excluding the symbiotic apostome ciliates. This technique will facilitate PCR-based diet studies of copepods and other zooplankton in their natural environments.  相似文献   

On the Blocking Flow Patterns in the Euro–Atlantic Sector:A Simple Model Study     

Dehai Luo  Yao Yao 《大气科学进展》2014,31(5):1181-1196

The flow patterns of Euro-Atlantic blocking events in winter are investigated by dividing the sector into three sub- regions： 60°-30°W （Greenland region）; 20°W-30°E [eastern Atlantic-Europe （EAE） region]; and 50°-90°E （Ural region）. It is shown that blocking events in winter are extremely frequent in the three sub-regions. Composite 500-mb geopotential height fields for intense and long-lived blocking events demonstrate that the blocking fields over Greenland and Ural regions exhibit southwest-northeast （SW-NE） and southeast-northwest （SE-NW） oriented dipole-type patterns, respectively, while the composite field over the EAE region exhibits an Ω-type pattern. The type of composite blocking pattern seems to be related to the position of the blocking region relative to the positive center of the climatological stationary wave （CSW） anomaly existing near 10°W.
The physical cause of why there are different composite blocking types in the three sub-regions is identified using a nonlinear multiscale interaction model. It is found that when the blocking event is in almost the same position as the positive CSW anomaly, the planetary-scale field can exhibit an Ω-type pattern due to the enhanced positive CSW anomaly. Neverthe- less, a SW-NE （SE-NW） oriented dipole-type block can occur due to the reduced positive CSW anomaly as it is farther in the west （east） of the positive CSW anomaly. The total fields of blocking in the three regions may exhibit a meandering flow comprised of several isolated anticyclonic and cyclonic vortices, which resembles the Berggren-Bolin-Rossby meandering jet type.  相似文献   

Changed Relationships Between the East Asian Summer Monsoon Circulations and the Summer Rainfall in Eastern China   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

GAO Hui  JIANG Wei  LI Weijing 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2014,28(6):1075-1084

In previous statistical forecast models, prediction of summer precipitation along the Yangtze River valley and in North China relies heavily on its close relationships with the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), the blocking high in higher latitudes, and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). These relationships were stable before the 1990s but have changed remarkably in the recent two decades. Before the 1990s, precipitation along the Yangtze River had a significant positive correlation with the intensity of the WPSH, but the correlation weakened rapidly after 1990, and the correlation between summer rainfall in North China and the WPSH also changed from weak negative to significantly positive. The changed relationships present a big challenge to the application of traditional statistical seasonal prediction models. Our study indicates that the change could be attributed to expansion of the WPSH after around 1990. Owing to global warming, increased sea surface temperatures in the western Pacific rendered the WPSH stronger and further westward. Under this condition, more moisture was transported from southern to northern China, leading to divergence and reduced (increased) rainfall over the Yangtze River (North China). On the other hand, when the WPSH was weaker, it stayed close to its climatological position (rather than more eastward), and the circulations showed an asymmetrical feature between the stronger and weaker WPSH cases owing to the decadal enhancement of the WPSH. Composite analysis reveals that the maximum difference in the moisture transport before and after 1990 appeared over the western Pacific. This asymmetric influence is possibly the reason why the previous relationships between monsoon circulations and summer rainfall have now changed.  相似文献   

Impacts of upland open drains upon runoff generation: a numerical assessment of catchment‐scale impacts     

Stuart N. Lane  David G. Milledge 《水文研究》2013,27(12):1701-1726

Shallow upland drains, grips, have been hypothesized as responsible for increased downstream flow magnitudes. Observations provide counterfactual evidence, often relating to the difficulty of inferring conclusions from statistical correlation and paired catchment comparisons, and the complexity of designing field experiments to test grip impacts at the catchment scale. Drainage should provide drier antecedent moisture conditions, providing more storage at the start of an event; however, grips have higher flow velocities than overland flow, thus potentially delivering flow more rapidly to the drainage network. We develop and apply a model for assessing the impacts of grips on flow hydrographs. The model was calibrated on the gripped case, and then the gripped case was compared with the intact case by removing all grips. This comparison showed that even given parameter uncertainty, the intact case had significantly higher flood peaks and lower baseflows, mirroring field observations of the hydrological response of intact peat. The simulations suggest that this is because delivery effects may not translate into catchment‐scale impacts for three reasons. First, in our case, the proportions of flow path lengths that were hillslope were not changed significantly by gripping. Second, the structure of the grip network as compared with the structure of the drainage basin mitigated against grip‐related increases in the concentration of runoff in the drainage network, although it did marginally reduce the mean timing of that concentration at the catchment outlet. Third, the effect of the latter upon downstream flow magnitudes can only be assessed by reference to the peak timing of other tributary basins, emphasizing that drain effects are both relative and scale dependent. However, given the importance of hillslope flow paths, we show that if upland drainage causes significant changes in surface roughness on hillslopes, then critical and important feedbacks may impact upon the speed of hydrological response. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

近几十年北半球孤立子阻塞和偶极子阻塞活动的对比研究     

鹿翠华  罗德海 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》2010,40(8)

对1958—1997年美国NCEP逐日高度场再分析资料进行低通滤波,利用滤波后的资料统计分析了北半球的孤立子阻塞和偶极子阻塞的地理位置分布、年际变化、季节特点等,又对大西洋、太平洋和乌拉尔山地区3个阻塞多发地的孤立子阻塞和偶极子阻塞活动特点进行比较,发现偶极子阻塞的纬度主要活动带比孤立子阻塞偏北5~10个纬度;孤立子阻塞主要在大西洋地区和乌拉尔山区活动,偶极子阻塞主要发生在太平洋地区,无论孤立阻塞还是偶极子阻塞在60°W~140°W(即美洲地区)都是最少的;孤立子阻塞和偶极子阻塞都有明显季节变化,孤立子阻塞活动的纬度峰值区是春季、秋季和冬季一致,夏季最偏北;偶极子阻塞活动的纬度峰值区是夏秋季位置最偏南,冬季发生区最偏北。孤立子阻塞经度的季节性要比偶极子阻塞更显著,但夏季经度位置最偏东和冬季最偏西的特点一样;太平洋地区无论孤立子阻塞还是偶极子阻塞活动纬度区都比大西洋和乌拉尔山地区偏北5~10个纬度;孤立子阻塞和偶极子阻塞天数都是冬季最多,春季次之,孤立子阻塞天数夏、秋数量相差不多,秋季稍多,偶极子阻塞秋季最少;孤立子阻塞和偶极子阻塞都有逐年减少的趋势,两者具有相反的年际变化等一些有意义的结果。  相似文献   

图像空间变化序列及其总体状态分析     

关泽群  李德仁 《遥感学报》1998,2(1):42-46

本文从图像分解与结合的角度,探讨了图像空变化序列问题。  相似文献   

无定河上游河道对沙漠化的阻截效应     

颜明  张应华  贺莉  程维明  王随继  许炯心 《中国沙漠》2022,42(2):62-68

干旱向湿润转变的过渡区受到风力与水力的交互作用,交互作用形成的风水复合地貌显著区别于单一风力或水力形成的地貌,探究风力与水力的交互作用有助于对干旱-湿润过渡区地貌过程的理解.基于野外考察、遥感影像解译和沉积物粒度分析等手段,分析了无定河上游河道对毛乌素沙地东进的阻截效应,结果表明:(1)无定河上游河道的西侧以流动、半流...  相似文献   

Maintenance and development of the Ural high and its contribution to severe cold wave activities in winter 2020/21          下载免费PDF全文

Jingbei Peng  Shuqing Sun  Bomin Chen 《大气和海洋科学快报》2022,15(2):54-58

2020年底至2021年初,连续两次强寒潮入侵中国东部地区,导致大范围强降温.本文研究这两次寒潮的特征和形成机理.主要结果如下:从2020年12月中旬到2021年1月中旬,乌拉尔山地区维持一宽阔的高压脊.脊前北风的维持和加强导致局地斜压性增加,导致下游横槽槽底等高线梯度加大,冷平流加强,西伯利亚高压加强和向南扩张.准定...  相似文献   

乌鲁木齐河青年渠冬季引水冰雪堵塞解决途径探讨     

张润杰 《地下水》2010,32(4):181-183

乌鲁木齐河青年渠是乌拉泊水库的主要水源途径,为了保证给乌鲁木齐市供水,必须在冬季利用青年渠引水,由于冬季青年渠引水,会受到冰雪淤积的威胁,有时甚至会封渠断流,并危及周边农牧民的正常生活和生产,冬季引水冰雪淤塞,原因是多方面的,对其原因进行分析,提出了解决途径,为冬季引水提供参考。  相似文献